The Pound Sterling (GBP) stabilized on Mondayabove 1.2800after a big bullish performance last week, rallying to levels not seen since April 2022, above 1.2800. Investors are watching the United Kingdom’s critical inflation data, released on Wednesday at 6 GMT.The GBP/USD pair is showing a severe contraction in volatility to start the week before the release of crucial price indicators, which will guide the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate policy.
Tight labor market conditions and higher food prices in the United Kingdom have remained major catalysts keeping inflationary pressures elevated. More interest rate hikes by the UK central bank are widely expected as inflation has not yet shown evidence of coming down.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling keeps hovering near 13-month highs
- The Pound Sterling reports less volatile action as investors await the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.
- UK’s monthly headline inflation (May) is expected to show a pace of 0.4%, slower than the 1.2% registered in April.
- Annualized headline CPI is seen softening to 8.5% vs. the prior release of 8.7%, while core inflation that excludes oil and food prices is seen steady at 6.8%.
- UK’s food price inflation is hovering near a 45-year high of 19%, keeping inflationary pressures at higher levels.
- Brexit and the execution of early retirement by individuals have resulted in labor shortages.
- British firms offset labor shortages by offering higher wages, increasing households’ demand for core goods and services.
- Reuters reported that the BoE looks set to raise interest rates by a quarter point to a 15-year high of 4.75% on June 22.
- For the interest rate guidance, a poll from Reuters indicates that UK’s interest rates will peak around 6% this year.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has confirmed that inflation is highly persistent and will take longer to return to the desired rate than expected.
- As reported by Financial Times, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has ruled out giving any direct fiscal support to households struggling with soaring mortgage costs. Budgetary support to individuals might fuel the price index and force the central banks to elevate interest rates further.
- IMF expects the UK to avoid recession this year and has upgraded its economic growth forecast to 0.4%. Earlier, it was expecting a contraction of 0.3%.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in the woods as investors have mixed responses about Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy guidance.
- As per the CME Fedwatch tool, investors expect Fed chair Jerome Powell to hike interest rates just once this year.
- Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin has commented that raising rates further could create the risk of a more significant economic slowdown. It will be comfortable doing more on interest rates if coming data doesn’t confirm a story that slowing demand is returning inflation to the 2% target.”
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsebee commented that there is conflicting data on whether we are too hot or have done enough.
- The United States Consumer Sentiment Index has improved to 63.6 as soft consumer and producer inflationary pressures have infused optimism among the market participants.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling Continues Non-Directional Performance
The Pound Sterling has stabilized after printing a fresh 13-month high at 1.2848. The Cable is showing a lackluster performance but is expected to continue its four-day winning streak as the USD Index faces pressure due to a shift in sentiment about Fed’s interest rate guidance. Horizontal support is plotted from May 26, 2022, high at 1.2667, which will act as a cushion for the Pound Sterling.
Sentiment for the GBP/USD pair will get more bullish if it climbs above a fresh 13-month high at 1.2848. The Pound Sterling could lose its strength if the Cable drop below June’s low around 1.2370
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