Crude May Stage A Larger Recovery Despite the Failed Attempt to Test the January Low.

Crude oil price extends the rebound from the monthly low of $76.25 after a surprising decline in US inventories. The asset may recover more over the coming days as it reverses ahead of the January low of $74.27.

The crude oil price has shown a fresh weekly high of $82.94 as it delves into a series of higher highs and lows. However, crude may continue to retrace the decline from the monthly high of $90.39 as data prints from the US reflect an improved energy consumption outlook.

Crude inventories have been contracted for the first time this month by the recent figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The statistics show stockpiles narrowing 0.215M in the week ending September 23 versus forecasts for a 0.443M rise.

Resilient demands may influence the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to return to its previous production plan. In addition, the group may propose a steady supply over the coming months as the rising interest rate environment across advanced economies diminish the outlook for global development.

The recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) posits that expectations for healthy global economic growth, combined with expected improvements in the containment of COVID-19 in China, are expected to boost oil consumption in 2023.

The next Ministerial Meeting on October 5 will determine if OPEC will adjust its production schedule as US output stays below prepandemic levels.

Until then, data prints from the US may influence oil prices as a deeper look at the figures from the EIA shows weekly field production narrowing to 12,000K in the week ending September 23 after printing at 12,100K for four successive weeks.

Considering recent developments, oil prices may experience a push as anticipations for great demand are met with signs of limited supply. Therefore, crude may stage a more significant recovery in the coming days amid the failed attempt to test the January low ($74.27).