The buying interest around the European currency remains well and sound and motivates EUR/USD to edge a tad higher and flirt with the 1.0980 regions on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Appears Bid Ahead Of Data
EUR/USD extended the upside since the beginning of the week. With the next target at the key round level at 1.1000, the figure is always amidst the generalized flattish mood in the global markets and the lack of direction in the dollar.
Indeed, some consolidation and rising cautiousness seem to kick in ahead of key data releases – especially Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls –against the backdrop of a shortened trading week due to the Easter holidays.
In addition, the ECB-Fed divergence keeps bolstering the pair’s upside, particularly after Tuesday’s JOLTs report reignited speculation of a likely pause at the Fed’s May event.
In the domestic calendar, the final Services PMI in Germany and broader Euroland advanced to 53.7 and 55.0, respectively, for March. Across the pond, all the attention will be on the publication of the ADP Employment Change, seconded by weekly Mortgage Applications, trade balance results, final Services PMI and the key ISM Non-Manufacturing.
What To Look For Around EUR
EUR/USD keeps the rally well and sound, and a potential test of the key 1.1000 mark already emerges on the horizon.
In the meantime, price action around the single currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics and the developing Fed-ECB divergence regarding the banks’ intentions regarding the potential next moves in interest rates.
Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continues to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.
This week’s key events in the euro area: Germany, EMU Final Services PMI (Wednesday) – Germany Construction PMI (Thursday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation, or not, of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.
EUR/USD Levels To Watch
So far, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.0951, and a break above 1.0973 (monthly high April 4) would target 1.1032 (2023 high February 2) en route to 1.1100 (round level). On the flip side, the next support comes at 1.0788 (monthly low April 3), followed by 1.0745 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.0712 (low March 24).
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