The GBP/JPY pair has shown an extremely wild gyration in a 180.70-182.50 range as the Bank of England (BoE) has surprisingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 5%. The street was anticipating a 25 bp interest rate hike. However, there was a sizeable risk of a bigger interest rate hike. Seven of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted in favor of a rate hike as expected by the market participants.
On Wednesday, UK inflation was surprisingly higher than expected. The monthly headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May expanded at 0.7%, matching April’s rate but remained higher than the estimated pace of 0.5%. On an annual basis, headline inflation remained steady at 8.7%, while the market anticipated a deceleration to 8.4%.
Core UK CPI that strips off the impact of volatile oil and food prices printed a fresh high of 7.1% against expectations of steady performance. UK’s core inflation is moving in the wrong direction despite BoE Governor Andrew Bailey raising interest rates for the 13th time in a row.
Investors are worried that the promise of halving inflation by year-end made by UK PM Rishi Sunak will be missed amid an absence of evidence of a decline in inflationary pressures. Also, UK FM Jeremy Hunt is avoiding tax cuts as it could infuse fresh blood into inflationary pressures.
On the Japanese Yen front, a continuation of the already decade-long ultra-dovish interest rate policy is expected from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep inflation above 2%. Meanwhile, BoJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi has warned that the effect of costly imported goods could disappear around September. Therefore, the central bank must keep rates lower to ensure inflation remains well-supported above 2% through higher wages.
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