The UK inflation data released earlier today generally unperturbed the pound sterling. The released data had mixed results as headline inflation marginally exceeded expectations due to surging crude oil and food costs. In contrast, core inflation dipped for the first time since July 2021.
Forecasts anticipate an energy and food price peak around October and a decline in headline numbers towards the latter part of 2022 and early 2023. This should theoretically reduce the mounting pressure on the Bank of England. However, these projections depend on the uncertain outcome or speedy end of the Russia/Ukraine war.
Currently, money markets are pricing in roughly 50bps, which money markets expect to be long-term ahead of the August BoE meet and interest rate decision. Sentiments favour short-term GBP upside.
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