The Pound Sterling (GBP) has come out of the woods and is marching north as UK’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has matched expectations. The GBP/USD pair has printed a fresh two-week high as an assessment of UK economic indicators indicates that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates further.
Stubborn food inflation and extreme labor shortages are a big reason to worry for BoE policymakers, as United Kingdom’s current inflationary pressures are four times higher than the desired rate. Meanwhile, the absence of evidence showing a slowdown in inflationary pressures is solidifying the UK central bank’s need for more interest rate hikes.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling Fits Comfortably Above 1.2600
- As expected, the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.2% monthly in April.
- Monthly Industrial Production and Manufacturing in the UK contracted faster than expected in April, by 0.3%.
- The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported goods trade deficit narrowed to 14.996 billion GBP.
- Labor shortages and 45-year high food inflation at 19% remain major catalysts behind United Kingdom’s inflationary pressures.
- Brexit events and individuals’ approach to early retirement after Covid have been major factors of labor shortage.
- Three-month Unemployment Rate declined to 3.8% in Aril in the UK. The Claimant Count Change decreased by 13,600, against analysts’ forecast for a decline of 9,600.
- The unavailability of talent has fueled payroll bills spent by firms for fresh hiring. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses rose 7.2% in April, surpassing the market expectation and the previous release of 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively, by a wide margin.
- May’s UK Employment data have propelled chances of further policy-tightening by the Bank of England.
- Current interest rates by the BoE are at 4.5%, and one more interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) will push rates to 4.75%.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey assured that inflation will come down, but it will take longer than expected while speaking before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
- On Tuesday, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said, “Wage increases of 4.0% would be a challenge to returning CPI to 2.0%.”
- Current UK inflationary pressures indicate that UK PM Rishi Sunak won’t be able to stick to his promise of halving inflation by year-end.
- The US Dollar is trying to get on its feet ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
- The soft landing of United States inflation, easing labor market conditions, and weak economic activities have improved the chances of the Fed leaving its policy rate unchanged following the June 13-14 meeting.
Technical Analysis: Short-Term And Long-Term Trend Is Bullish
The Pound Sterling has confidently climbed above the round-level resistance of 1.2600 as the pullback move to near 1.2490 was capitalized by the market participants as a buying opportunity. The Cable is approaching the annual high of 1.2700 as an interest rate hike by the Bank of England will trim the Fed-BoE policy divergence. Advancing 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on an intraday timeframe indicate that the short-term and long-term trend is bullish.
Sentiment for the GBP/USD pair will improve if it surpasses a two-month high of around 1.2620. The Pound Sterling could lose strength if the Cable dropped below June’s low of around 1.2370.