Following the high prices of precious metals on Tuesday, Gold and silver are moderating in Asia-Pacific trading as stock indexes rose and the US Dollar fell. That move placed gold prices above 1,700 at their highest level since early October. Silver is just below 21.5 at levels not traded since June.
The USD DXY Index is down nearly 2% for November, extending last month’s 0.53% decline. Precious metals have capitalized on the USD’s weakness, which makes non-USD-denominated purchases cheaper.
Market-based rate hike bets for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting reflect only a 30% chance that the FOMC will hike by 75 basis points, pointing to a slower pace of tightening.
Treasuries have become more attractive and lessened the US yield premium against its peers. Nevertheless, calling a trend reversal in yields and the Greenback is potentially premature. The October US consumer price index (CPI) will cross the wires on Thursday. Analysts expect core inflation—a measure that removes food and energy prices—to drop to 6.5% from a year ago.
That would be down from 6.6% in September. A hotter-than-expected print poses a downside risk to bullion prices, as it would likely elicit aggressive repricing in FOMC bets.
Gold and silver bulls will monitor the inflation numbers and how the market reacts. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Kansas City Fed President Esther George—both FOMC voters—are due to speak on Thursday after the CPI data, which may clarify any uncertain market reaction.
The latest Commitments of Traders report (COT) from the CFTC for the week ending November 01 showed a 1.7k reduction to gold’s net long position after speculators added 6.7k longs and 8.5k shorts. The recent price surge likely forced some of those shorts to cover their positions, which fuels further upside on short covering.
Silver positioning among speculators rose 1.8k for the same period, per the COT data. However, short positioning remained robust at 49k. Silver’s +2% performance this week is likely also due partly to short covering. An updated COT report is due on Friday.