The British pound was muted in its reaction to the UK GDP beat this morning however, once the European session commences, there could be a more positive response. UK GDP statistics outperformed on almost all metrics (see economic calendar below) and have managed to push above the February 2020 pre-COVID level.
The primary contributor towards GDP for the month of October was the services sector (blue) and after a dismal month in September, the support has been most welcome. Considering the UK is principally a services economy, the release adds some positivity to the broader UK economy.
From a production standpoint, the ONS report stated that “electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply was the largest negative contributor”, highlighting the declining energy crises facing the UK and Europe. Should Russia look to cut the supply of gas and oil further post-G7 and their decision to implement a cap on Russian oil, this situation could compound and negatively impact future GDP numbers and consequently the pound.
Looking ahead, the soft GBP reaction could be attributed to concerns around strike action in the UK’s private and public sectors, of which PM Rishi Sunak’s government is looking to utilize military personnel to fill the gaps.