The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids following the previous day’s two-way directionless price move and maintains its bid tone through the early part of the European session on Tuesday. The pair trades around the 0.6735-0.6740 area, up nearly 0.60% daily, and draws support from various factors.
The hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes of the April meeting, along with the upbeat China macro data, underpin the Australian Dollar amid the emergence of some US Dollar selling. The RBA meeting minutes showed that board members considered the case for another 25 bps rate hike in April as inflation remained too high and the labor market was very tight. Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that the Chinese economy grew 4.5% during the January-March quarter, well above estimates and the 2.9% in the previous quarter.
Adding to this, Industrial Production rose 3.9% in March, up from 2.4% in February, while Retail sales rose more than expected by 10.6% last month. Furthermore, Fixed Asset Investment grew 5.1% in March Vs. 5.5% in February, which, in turn, fueled optimism about the post-COVID recovery in the world’s second-largest economy and eased fears about a deeper global economic downturn. This remains supportive of a generally upbeat tone around the equity markets, which attracts fresh selling around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and further benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.
That said, speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue raising interest rates could limit the downside for the buck and act as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair, at least for the time being. The markets are currently pricing in a greater chance of another 25 bps lift-off at the next FOMC policy meeting in May. This remains supportive of high US Treasury bond yields and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying, warranting some caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the major and positioning. For further intraday appreciating Market participants now look forward to the US housing market data – Building Permits and Housing Starts – for some impetus later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD price dynamics and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair move.
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