On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 2.27%. Reversing a 1.42% decline from Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $24,835. Despite the bullish session, BTC revisited sub-$24,000 for the first time in three sessions.
A choppy start to the day saw BTC slide to an early morning low of $23,862. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,934 before rallying to an early afternoon high of $25,114. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,922 before easing back to end the day at $24,835.
There were no external market forces to influence investors, with the US markets closed for George Washington’s birthday. While there were no US economic indicators for investors to consider, there were also no regulatory moves or US lawmaker chatter to influence sentiment.
The quiet session supported a BTC recovery from early losses, though BTC failed to hold onto the $25,000 handle, reflecting lingering regulatory uncertainty and Fed Fear.
It is a busier day ahead, with the US markets reopening after the Monday holiday. US economic indicators will draw interest in the afternoon session. Prelim private sector PMI numbers for February will be in the spotlight, with the services PMI likely to have more influence on the NASDAQ Composite Index and broader crypto market.
The sub-components will provide the Fed with further data points. Input and output price pressures, new orders, and labor market conditions are likely focal points. This morning, the NASDAQ Composite Index was down 20.25 points.
Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 58/100 to 60/100, reversing Monday’s decline. However, the Index remained within the Greed zone, despite the bullish BTC session, suggesting regulatory jitters and Fed Fear.
Despite increased US lawmaker scrutiny of SEC regulatory activity, regulatory jitters resurfaced over the weekend. The US Department of Justice, the CFTC, and the SEC have increased the scrutiny of the digital asset space in response to the White House’s call for greater oversight.
It could be a difficult time for US crypto participants. The market would need bipartisan bills to introduce appropriate regulatory controls. The likelihood of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory remained a crypto market headwind to weigh on the Index.
After returning to the Greed zone, the Index must avoid the Neutral zone to support a BTC breakout from $25,000 to target $30,000. However, an Index return to the Fear zone would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.