Last week was pivotal for financial markets when investors finally took stock of the higher-for-longer narrative coming from the major central banks and weighed on risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 had its second straight decline, and the end of earnings season means that we can confirm 2022 delivered subpar earnings in Q4. The number of positive earnings surprises combined with the magnitude of those surprises were below five and 10-year averages. Along with Fed minutes, a Chinese rate decision and the first reading of February PMIs could keep investors busy.
Looking at the Q4 earnings season first, all eyes are on forward guidance and what analysts think will happen in the future. According to FactSet, analysts expect a 5.4% and 3.4% earnings decline in Q1 and Q2 this year for the S&P 500 before earnings start to pick up again in the year’s second half.
For 2023, earnings growth is expected to be 2.3%. This is unimpressive compared to the risk-free yield on offer from buying Treasuries. The yield on the 2-year is currently 4.63%, which is one of the highest levels since 2007.
The low-yield era is behind us, and this is problematic for stocks. Thus, here at Minerva, we argue that the stock market sell-off is not only about the Fed failing to pivot but also because of expectations of an earnings recession.
Add in concerns that stocks remain too over-valued, and we could be set up for another poor week on the stock market. Right now, the 12-month forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18, which is below the 5-year average of 18.5, but above the 10-year average of 17.2, according to FactSet. It is also above the 12-month forward P/E ratio recorded at the end of December 2022, which stood at 16.1.
Suppose stocks are deemed expensive and negative future earnings growth is also expected. In that case, this is a toxic mix for stock markets, and this is the biggest reason we think stock markets will likely struggle again this week, regardless of the backwards-looking Fed minutes.
There has been an enormous re-pricing in the Fed Funds Futures market recently. Less than a month ago, the market expected rates to peak below 5% and for a series of cuts to take place before the end of the year to approximately 80 basis points.
US rates are expected to peak at 5.25-5.5% by July 2023, and the bulk of the market believes that rates will now only be cut once by year-end to 5-5.25%. A month ago, rates were expected to be reduced to 4.25-4.5% by year-end, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool.
This is a massive re-pricing and one that is helping to fuel dollar strength. After a weak start to the year, the dollar index is back with aplomb. EUR/USD is trading below $1.07. It attempted to breach $1.10 at the start of this month.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also trending lower and is just hanging on to the $1.20 handle at the opening of a new week. This is mostly down to interest rate differentials, with expectations growing that the BOE will cut rates before the Federal Reserve after BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested that if the UK economy continues to weaken, then rate cuts could be on the cards.
There has been an enormous re-pricing in the Fed Funds Futures market recently. Less than a month ago, the market expected rates to peak below 5% and for a series of cuts to occur before the end of the year to approximately 80 basis points. US rates are expected to peak at 5.25-5.5% by July 2023, and the bulk of the market believes that rates will now only be cut once by year-end to 5-5.25%.
A month ago, rates were expected to be reduced to 4.25-4.5% by year-end, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. This is a massive re-pricing and one that is helping to fuel dollar strength. After a weak start to the year, the dollar index is back with aplomb. EUR/USD is trading below $1.07. It attempted to breach $1.10 at the start of this month. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also trending lower and is just hanging on to the $1.20 handle at the opening of a new week. This is mostly down to interest rate differentials, with expectations growing that the BOE will cut rates before the Federal Reserve after BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested that if the UK economy continues to weaken, then rate cuts could be on the cards
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When to Test for Post-Cycle Therapy
Before starting post-cycle therapy, it’s crucial to wait for your
body to stabilize after completing a treatment cycle.
This typically means waiting 2-3 weeks after your menstrual period returns and your hormone levels have normalized.
When to Start Post-Cycle Therapy
You can begin post-cycle therapy once you’ve confirmed that
your body has successfully resumed its natural cycle.
This is usually indicated by the return of your menstrual period and stable
hormone levels.
Monitoring During Post-Cycle Therapy
Regular monitoring is essential to ensure your treatment is effective and well-tolerated.
This includes checking for side effects and ensuring your hormones remain within the desired range.
Post Cycle Therapy 101: The Ultimate A-Z
Guide
What is Post Cycle Therapy?
Post Cycle Therapy (PCT) is a recovery period for individuals who have stopped using
Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) or synthetic hormones to allow their bodies
to restart natural hormone production safely. During PCT, the
body is given time to reset and recover after exposure to
exogenous substances that may have suppressed or altered its own processes.
Why Use A PCT?
Using PCT is essential for individuals who have used
anabolic steroids or other hormone-altering
drugs. Without a proper PCT, users risk experiencing prolonged suppression of their natural hormone production, leading to hormonal imbalances and potential health complications.
PCT ensures that the body恢复 to its natural state, minimizing the risks associated
with steroid use.
Kick-Starts Natural Testosterone Production
One of the primary reasons for using PCT is to kick-start
natural testosterone production. After ceasing the use of exogenous hormones,
the body may struggle to resume producing testosterone on its own due to
the suppression caused by PEDs or synthetic hormones. PCT provides the
necessary signals to the brain and endocrine system to begin恢复 normal hormone production.
Prevents Low Testosterone Symptoms
Low testosterone levels can lead to a host of unwanted symptoms, including fatigue, muscle wasting,
reduced libido, and mood swings. By initiating PCT in a
timely manner, individuals can prevent these symptoms
from becoming chronic or severe.
Counteracts the Side Effects of PEDs
PEDs often come with their own set of side effects, such as testicular atrophy, liver damage, and cardiovascular issues.
PCT not only helps恢复 hormone levels but also works to mitigate these
side effects by supporting overall recovery and health.
Helps You Keep Your Gains
For bodybuilders and athletes who have made significant gains from steroid use,
PCT is crucial for retaining muscle mass and strength.
Without PCT, users may experience a reversal of their
progress, known as “rollback,” where gains are lost
due to hormonal imbalances.
Gives You Time to Recover
Finally, PCT gives the body time to fully恢复 from the strain of exogenous hormone use.
This recovery period is essential for overall health and well-being, ensuring that users can resume natural hormone production without unnecessary risks.
Different Types of PCT
When it comes to PCT, there are several options available, each designed to address different needs.
Two of the most common types are Clomid PCT and Nolvadex PCT.
Clomid PCT cycle
Clomid is a synthetic estrogen that serves as a powerful aromatase inhibitor (AI).
It works by blocking the conversion of anabolic steroids into their hormone forms, allowing the
body to resume producing testosterone naturally. Clomid is often used in longer PCT cycles to maximize recovery time.
Nolvadex PCT cycle
Nolvadex, another synthetic estrogen, functions similarly to Clomid but with slightly different mechanisms.
It is commonly used in shorter PCT cycles due to its rapid ability
to restore hormone production and mitigate estrogen-related side effects.
PCT Cycles and Dosages
Clomid PCT cycle: Typically lasts 4-6 weeks, with dosages ranging from 25-50mg
per day, split into two or three doses. This duration and dosage are designed to effectively reset hormone
levels without causing excessive side effects.
Nolvadex PCT cycle: Often shorter, lasting around 2-3 weeks with dosages of 10-20mg per day.
Nolvadex is particularly effective at combating estrogen buildup, making it a favorite among users seeking a rapid
recovery solution.
Frequently Asked Questions
When should I start PCT?
The timing of PCT is critical to its effectiveness. Ideally, you should
begin PCT immediately after ceasing steroid
use or synthetic hormone therapy. Waiting too long can result in prolonged
suppression and reduced recovery potential.
How long should PCT last?
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