The more nuanced approach to monetary policy going forward suggested by Fed Chair Powell’s speech means the jobs reports will be even more significant in the following months. Economists at MUFG Bank note that impressively strong Nonfarm Payrolls figures are needed to lift the US Dollar.
They said that when Fed Chair Powell mentions avoiding ‘crashing the economy’ what the Fed intends is a safe landing that means the level of unemployment increase is reduced. This is required to achieve a drop in inflation back to the target. Hence, the necessity of NFP reports.
They further stated that based on the impetus in the market favoring the sale of USD, they suspect a weaker-than-expected employment report would trigger a bigger market reaction than a stronger-than-expected report.
They believe that it would take less of a surprise we feel for the market to price in less tightening from the FOMC than more. So the bias feels skewed to a weaker Dollar today and a stronger jobs report would have to be impressively stronger to see the US Dollar advance notably.