Sellers remain in control of the sentiment surrounding the European currency and drag EUR/USD back below the 1.1000 mark at the end of the week.
EUR/USD loses momentum on weak German GDP
EUR/USD accelerated losses and broke below the psychological 1.1000 support on Friday in response to discouraging figures from Germany’s advanced GDP Growth Rate during January-March.
On the latter, the German economy is expected to contract 0.1% YoY in Q1 and remain flat vs. the previous quarter. Adding to these poor results, the jobs report did not help either after the Unemployment Change rose more than estimated by 24K people amidst a steady jobless rate at 5.6%.
Later in the session, advanced inflation figures in Germany and the preliminary GDP Growth Rate in the broader Euroland will also take centre stage.
In the US, inflation figures measured by the PCE will be at the center of the debate along with Personal Income, Personal Spending, Employment Cost, and the final reading of April’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD’s upside momentum loses further traction due to disheartening prints from the German calendar on Friday.
Meanwhile, price action around the single currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics and the developing Fed-ECB divergence regarding the banks’ intentions regarding the potential next moves in interest rates.
Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continues to favor further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.
This week’s key events in the euro area: Euro group Meeting, Germany labor market report/ Advanced Inflation Rate/Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, EMU Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation (or not) of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, the pair is losing 0.41% at 1.0981 and faces the next support at 1.0909 (weekly low April 17), seconded by 1.0831 (monthly low April 10) and finally 1.0788 (monthly low April 3). On the flip side, the surpass of 1.1075 (2023 high April 14) would target 1.1100 (round level) en route to 1.1184 (weekly high March 21, 2022).
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