Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Trades Just Above $1,940, Flirts With 100-Day SMA Support

Gold price edges lower for the second successive day on Monday and remains depressed through the first half of the European session. The XAU/USD is currently just above the $1,940 level, with bears awaiting a sustained break through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from an all-time peak.

Stronger US Dollar Weighs On Gold Price

The US Dollar (USD) builds on Friday’s rebound from over a one-week low, touched in the aftermath of the mixed employment details from the United States (US), and turns out to be a key factor weighing the Gold price. It is worth recalling that the headline Nonfarm-Payrolls showed that the US economy added 339K jobs in May, higher than the 294K reported in the previous month and smashing estimates for a reading of 190K. This could allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its hawkish stance to bring down stubbornly higher inflation, pushing the US Treasury bond yields higher and underpinning the USD.

Fed Rate Hike Uncertainty Lends Some Support To XAU/USD

However, additional details of the closely-watched US jobs data revealed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7% compared to an expected uptick to 3.5% from 3.4% in April. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%, indicating signs of moderating wage growth. This, along with less hawkish remarks by a slew of Fed officials last week, fueled speculations about an imminent pause in the US central bank’s rate-hiking campaign. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the non-yielding Gold price and helping limit further losses, at least for now.

Risk-On Mood Should Cap Any Attempted Recovery In Gold Price

The upside, meanwhile, remains capped amid the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine traditional safe-haven assets, including the XAU/USD. Investors continue to cheer the optimism over the passage of legislation to lift the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling to avert an unprecedented American default. On Monday, a private-sector survey showed that China’s services activity picked up in May and remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, could act as a headwind for the Gold price and warrants some caution for aggressive bullish traders.

Traders Now Look To US ISM Services PMI For Some Impetus

Market participants now look forward to the US ISM Services PMI release, due later during the early North American session. This and the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to Gold prices. The broader risk sentiment might further contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD.

Gold Price Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, some follow-through selling last week’s swing low, around the $1,932 area below, will be a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for more profound losses. The Gold price might accelerate the downfall towards the $1.919-$1.918 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $1.900 round-figure mark.

Conversely, a recovery above the $1,947-$1,949 region will likely face resistance near the $1.957-$1,958 zone ahead of the $1.983-$1,985 supply zone. The latter should act as a pivotal point, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering could allow the Gold price to reclaim the $2.000 psychological mark and climb to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,010-$2,012 region.

Leave a Reply

Important Link

Fund Your Deriv Account
Withdraw Funds to Your Local Currency
VIP Trading Signals
Learn To Trade

Contact Us

Follow Us


Forex, Crypto, Options, and Binary Options have both large potential rewards and large potential risks. Therefore, before investing or trading any of the assets, ensure you are aware of and willing to accept the accompanying risks. Do not trade money you cannot afford to lose.

All Rights Reserved. None of the content of this website can be published elsewhere by any means without the prior consent of the owner(s). Please, check our terms & conditions and privacy policy before continuing to use this website.

This website and its owner(s) are not in any way liable for any incurred loss, whether caused by the information provided on this website or otherwise. The use of this website, including the content and information provided, is the user’s sole liability.