Japanese Yen Retreats as US Dollar Takes Flight Despite Debt Debacle. Higher USD/JPY?

The Japanese Yen slid again today while the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars are firmer after significant gains were seen by the US Dollar last Friday.

Japanese PPI exceeded expectations at 5.8% year-on-year to the end of April rather than the 5.6% anticipated. National CPI is due for release this Thursday, and a Bloomberg survey of economists is forecasting the annual headline number to be 3.5%, up from 3.2% previously.

Rising price pressure may question the Bank of Japan’s continuing loose monetary policy stance.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.75% but injected 25 billion Yuan of liquidity.

Despite the measure, APAC equity markets were little moved on Monday, and futures are pointing toward a flat start to the Wall Street session. Japan’s TOPIX index is trading near its 30-year peak.

This week, the US debt ceiling issue is likely a key focus for markets. Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made it clear that if Congress cannot lift it, there will be damage to the economy and financial markets.

President Joe Biden is optimistic a deal will be done, and he is expected to meet the Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday.

The US Senate and the House of Representatives are in session until Thursday. According to the President’s schedule, he will be in Washington until Wednesday before leaving.

If a deal isn’t done by Thursday, the logistics to achieve a satisfactory outcome could become more complex.

Crude oil is languishing again today after sliding last week. The WTI futures contract has dipped under US$ 69.50 bbl, while the Brent contract is near US$ 73.50 bbl at the time of going to print.

Gold is holding ground above US$ 2,010 an ounce, and the rest of the metals complex has started the week positively.

Several BoE, ECB, and Fed speakers will cross the wires, while the Empire State Manufacturing survey will be a notable market data point.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/JPY has added to last week’s gain today as it remains above a couple of ascending trend lines.

While it broke above several short and medium-term daily simple moving averages (SMA), the 200- and 260-day SMAs lie above the price. This may suggest that short and medium-term bullish momentum could evolve while longer-term momentum signals are yet to confirm this.

Resistance might be at the previous peaks at 137.77, 137.91, and 138.18. On the downside, support lay lie near the recent lows of 133.75, 133.50 and 133.00

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