Potential Surprises from the ECB Likely To Affect Pounds


Markets expect 50 bps by the Bank of England. Economists at ING analyze how the BoE’s policy announcement could affect the EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs. 

 “The swap market is fully pricing in a 50 bps hike, and we doubt the reaction in Sterling will be meaningful.” 

EUR/GBP may be more impacted by potential surprises from the ECB, while some stabilization or modest recovery by the Dollar may cap GBP/USD and prevent 1.2500 from being tested before year-end.”

“Heading into the New Year, we still see a preponderance of downside risks for GBP/USD as hawkish central banks (above all, the Fed) hiking into a recession point to the underperformance of highly risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound.”

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