Stronger UK wage growth figures anticipate positive for the Sterling. Economists at ING report that the GBP/USD could surpass the 1.2300/10 area.
“The November payroll increased more than double what was expected and the weekly earnings rate ex-bonus nudged up to 6.1% 3m/YoY, the highest in a year. This adds to thoughts of a full employment recession and supports some of the more hawkish pricing of the Bank of England (BoE) policy cycle. It is probably not enough to prompt the BoE into another 75 bps hike on Thursday but will support Sterling.”
“Today’s UK data could light the fuse of a Cable rally, were US CPI data to oblige.”
“Our prior has been that this rally stalls around this 1.2300/2310 area – but a close above here warns of another three to four big figures higher during thin, year-end markets.”