The GBP/USD Surges High on USD’s Frailty


Cable is entering the weekend in a slightly high mood and has just printed a fresh one-month high around 1.2245. Pound Sterling has picked up a bit over the last two weeks; its increase this week was driven by the weak USD. The greenback, a one-way trade since last year June, is losing relevance post-FOMC after the chairman, Powell, suggested that the Fed may pause rate hikes when appropriate. The US dollar has noticeably weakened across the board over the last two days though the Biden administration sits.

The Bank of England (BoE) will hike bank rates again as the market leans towards a 50 bp hike. The BoE, along with other major central banks, is trying to catch up with inflation which is expected to hit double-digits in the UK in Q3.

The recent monthly GDP data increased, printing at +0.5% in May compared to -0.2% in April, while the UK unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.7% between January and March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This strong backdrop should allow the BoE room to hike rates by half-a-percentage point next Thursday, which will further loosen the Pound Sterling.

The daily GBP/USD chart stays hopeful, with a series of higher lows seen since mid-July. A series of higher highs have been broken several times but still suggests a bullish market tone.

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