The price of oil moves to a fresh weekly high ($90.36) after an unexpected decline in US inventories, and crude may try to retrace the decline from the October high ($93.48) as it seems to be no longer responding to the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($86.44).
The price of oil carves a series of higher highs and lows to trade back above the moving average, and expectations for less supply may keep crude prices afloat as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plan to “adjust downward the overall production by 2 mb/d” starting in November.
At the same time, developments coming out of the US may lead to higher prices as oil inventories contract 3.115M in the week ending October 28 versus forecasts for a 0.367M rise, and the advance from the September low ($76.25) may turn out to be a key reversal as signs of robust demand are met with the shift in OPEC production.
Therefore, the price of oil may stage a further advance ahead of the next OPEC Ministerial Meeting on December 4, although the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) warns of slowing demand, and it remains to be seen if the organization will respond to the US data prints as weekly field output remains below pre-pandemic levels.
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