The Russia-Ukraine War is Affecting the Financial Markets.


The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, publicized on state media that the West is jointly trying to nullify Russian sovereignty and Russia will not hesitate to use its military power to resist these forces. President Putin also mentioned the renewal of the Russian troops in Ukraine with additional 2 million soldiers incited by recent Ukrainian victories in some regions.

The implication of this on the financial market is the spike in safe-haven demand despite a strong USD, and the US Treasury yields through spot Gold (+0.3%) and JPY (+0.07%).

Expanding the potential Effect of an amplified invasion might result in further price hikes for crucial Russian and Ukrainian export merchandise, such as wheat, corn, seed oils, natural gas, iron ore, and crude oil. The present price action of these commodities is tracking higher as of 21 September 2022.

The EU Volatility Index is expectedly to find some bids this morning and might be testing the 200-day SMA (grey). There is a risk of further decline within Ukraine or more threats to the West by President Putin if there is any hike above this crucial area of resistance.

These situations emerge during a critical central bank-themed week, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce its interest rate decision later this evening. Central banks globally attempt to resist inflationary pressures, which have increased majorly due to the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition, consumers bear the ripple effect of tightening monetary policies. As a result, the threat of continued strain on the energy and food market may linger for longer than envisaged and finally worsen recessionary fears.

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