US Dollar Strengthens As Recession Fears Persist

The US Dollar (USD) advances against several currencies, except the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, as it benefits from substantial haven inflows. The risk-off tone comes from comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said that recession remains a risk as long as the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightens its policy. These comments, in combination with US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on his second day of hearings at Capitol Hill reiterating that at least two more hikes would be appropriate, put recession risks on high alert. At the same time, disappointing Purchase Manager Index numbers out of France and Germany only poured more oil into the already burning fire. 

Friday will focus mainly on June’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, due at 13:45 GMT. Investors will likely pay special attention to the Services sector numbers as wage inflation is partly responsible for sticky inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Jim Bullard will speak at the Central Bank of Ireland and International Journal of Central Banking Research Conference in Dublin around 09:15 GMT, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will speak at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business CFO Roundtable at noon GMT.  Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will discuss community development during closing remarks at the bank’s annual policy summit at 17:40 GMT,   closing the week off regarding Fed speakers. 

Daily Digest: US Dollar Delivers A Few Knockout Punches 

  • One big data point on Friday’s economic calendar is the June composite, manufacturing, and services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive at 48.5 from 48.4 in May. PMI services are expected to cool down from 54.9 to 54.0. A number above 50 means the sector is expanding, and more demand and growth are predicted. On the contrary, a number below 50 suggests contraction, a sign of a lower market, possible layoffs, and falling orders for that sector. 
  • European PMIs point to further contractions in the eurozone as French Service contracts from 52.5 to 48 and French Manufacturing PMI’s 45.7 to 45.5. Germany’s Services PMI went from 57.2 to 54.1, and the Manufacturing PMI went from 44.8 to 43.6. This questions whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will be as hawkish as it preluded in its latest interest rate decision. Markets paired back bets of more hikes to only one in September, with a very slim chance of a second hike in December.
  • US Housing data is done and dusted for this week. The key takeaway is that the US housing market is holding up despite rapidly rising interest rates. There are even increasing signs of strength ahead, namely in the upbeat Building Permits data.   
  • St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard will speak around 09:15 GMT, followed by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at noon.  Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester closes off around 17:40 GMT regarding Fed speakers this week. 
  • Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil sold off further, although Crude Inventories on Thursday showed a substantial drawdown. Most recent oil futures are priced at $68, below the critical $70 psychological level. Gold resides near a month low in precious metals at $1,917 per troy ounce. 
  • Equities are set to close off the week in the red. The Japanese Topix index retreats from its 33-year high and is set to lose more than 1% on Friday. The Chinese Hang Seng Index edges down 1.70%. European indices are also having trouble, with the German Dax retreating 1% and US equity futures, on average, down 0.50%. 
  • The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 75.6% chance of 25 basis points (bps) interest-rate hike on July 26. The certainty of one more hike has increased as US Fed Chairman Powell remained hawkish in the recent two hearings, though markets remain reluctant to price in that second rate hike.  
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields at 3.73% and sees bond prices higher as investors park their money in relatively safe places before the weekend. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Quite The Move

The US Dollar delivered an upside surprise on Friday as it was on the back foot for most of the week. The most significant moves are against the Euro, by nearly 1% appreciation for the Greenback and 2% against the Norwegian Krone. This fuels the US Dollar Index (DXY) in its Asia-Pacific and European sessions breakout. 

On the upside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) briefly touched 103.07, triggering a short backfall intraday. Though the move is very bullish for the DXY, the risk at hand could be a rejection against that 100-day SMA from a technical angle, with a pullback into the US session. To consolidate these gains, it would be good to see a close above the 100-day SMA to see the Greenback advance further next week.  

On the downside, the 55-day SMA near 102.60 should flip again into support after being broken the past few weeks several times from both upside and downside moves. Still, the fact that this moving indicator has been chopped up so much might take away its importance a bit. Instead, look for Thursday’s high at 102.46 to act as a floor or 102.00 as a psychological level. 

How Does Fed’s Policy Impact US Dollar?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has two mandates: maximum employment and price stability. The Fed uses interest rates as the primary tool to reach its goals but has to find the right balance. If the Fed is concerned about inflation, it tightens its policy by raising the interest rate to increase the cost of borrowing and encourage saving. In that scenario, the US Dollar (USD) will likely gain value due to decreasing money supply. On the other hand, the Fed could decide to loosen its policy via rate cuts if it’s concerned about a rising unemployment rate due to a slowdown in economic activity. Lower interest rates are likely to lead to a growth in investment and allow companies to hire more people. In that case, the USD is expected to lose value.

The Fed also uses quantitative tightening (QT) or quantitative easing (QE) to adjust the size of its balance sheet and steer the economy in the desired direction. QE refers to the Fed buying assets, such as government bonds, in the open market to spur growth, and QT is precisely the opposite. QE is widely seen as a USD-negative central bank policy action and vice versa.

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