US S&P Global PMI Forecast: Market To Look For Any US Recession Hints In June Survey

The S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of private sector businesses through a monthly survey. On Friday, June 23, the company will publish the June preliminary estimates of Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for the United States (US).

As the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains determined to bring inflation back to its 2% target, the extended period of higher borrowing costs is already negatively impacting businesses, leading the economy to the brink of recession.

In May, the S&P Global preliminary US Manufacturing PMI fell for the first time in five months to 48.5, returning to contraction after a brief one-month stint in expansion territory. The Services PMI Index rose to 55.1 from 53.6, outpacing the market consensus 52.6.

Commenting on the renewed decline in the US manufacturing sector activity in May, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warned that “we are likely to see further downward pressure on both output and prices for goods in the coming months, thanks to the demand environment which higher interest rates have hit, the increased cost of living, economic uncertainty and a post-pandemic shift in spend from goods to services.”

What To Expect In The Next S&P Global PMI Report?

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index is a tad higher at 48.5 in June, compared with the final reading of 48.4 in April. The Services PMI, however, is expected to decline to 54.0 in June vs. the previous month’s final figure of 54.9. The Composite PMI is foreseen at 54.4 in the current month, up from May’s 54.3 final figure.

Analysts at TD Securities noted that “the S&P PMIs will offer a first comprehensive look at the state of the US economy for early June. Note that the manufacturing PMI registered its first decline this year in May, while the services PMI continued to improve, posting its fifth consecutive gain last month. We expect the mfg index to improve but to stay under contraction territory, while the services PMI likely lost speed.”

When Will June Flash US S&P Global Pmis Be Released, And How Could It Affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global PMI report is scheduled for release at 13:45 GMT on June 23. In the lead-up to the US PMI showdown, the US Dollar is recovering from monthly troughs, setting EUR/USD on a corrective decline toward the 1.0900 level.

An upside surprise to the US PMI data will reinforce expectations of two more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in the second half of this year, as projected by the dot plot chart last week. Markets are now pricing a 77% probability of a Fed rate hike next month. If the US data suggests signs of resilience in the US economy, the US Dollar could receive a fresh lifeline, particularly against the Euro.

On the other hand, dwindling US business activity will accentuate US economic concerns, which could provide additional legs to the ongoing US Dollar downtrend, especially after the testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as less hawkish than what markets had priced. Nevertheless, the US Dollar could see limited downside and capitalize on its safe-haven status on disappointing PMI readings.

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