The Indian rupee performed very well in the Asian Fx in August, declining by only 0.48% against the USD. However, economists believe that the INR is set to weaken into the end of the year and possibly, next year. Although, it can be avoided by the occurrence of bond index inclusion or the softening of oil prices.
While the currency gains some support from the Reserve Bank of India, it also benefits from renewed speculation about the inclusion of government securities in a global bond index.
At 13.5% YoY, the 2022 GDP print was below expectations, and the activity will be softer in the coming quarters as the boost from reopening wanes, external headwinds increase, and further RBI rate hikes begin to bite.