USD/JPY keeps surging since the beginning of the month despite the recent pullback in US Treasury yields, and the bullish momentum underlying the exchange rate looks poised to persist as long as the RSI holds above 70.
As a result, USD/JPY might test the August 1998 high (147.67) as Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Lael Brainard warns that “monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time.” Expectations for higher US interest rates may keep the exchange rate high ahead as the central bank seems to be on track to retain its current approach to combating inflation.
The USD/JPY might continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (136.67) amid the diverging paths between the FOMC and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), though the Fed’s next direction is yet to be seen ahead of the FOMC.
Until then, USD/JPY may continue to appreciate amid speculation for another 75bp Fed rate hike, while the tilt in retail sentiment looks poised to persist as traders have been net-short the pair for most of 2022.
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