BTC Fear & Greed Index Sends Bearish Signal on Fed Fear and G20 Plans

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.65%. Reversing a 0.09% loss from Saturday, BTC ended the week down 2.98% to $23,561. BTC ended the five-day losing streak while falling short of the $24,000 handle for the second consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early morning low of $23,083. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,918, BTC rallied to a late high of $23,673 before easing back. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,331 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,483 to end the day at $23,561.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $23,619 capped the upside. There were no crypto news events to influence investor sentiment on Sunday. The lack of news left dip buyers to deliver support. However, the upside was modest, with lingering crypto market headwinds testing buyer appetite.

Fed Fear and regulatory uncertainty left BTC short of the $24,000 handle over the weekend. The latest US inflation numbers raise the prospects of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory that could send the US economy into a recession.

Updates from the G20 delivered regulatory uncertainty, with the G20 tasking the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to initiate a global regulatory framework.

The G20’s decision to move ahead with a global regulatory framework rather than pursue a ban on cryptos was market positive. However, the involvement of the IMF in establishing a global crypto regulatory framework could be of concern. At the G20, IMF Managing Director suggested banning crypto should be an option.

US regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will need continued monitoring. Investors should also track the crypto news wires for Binance and FTX updates and SEC v Ripple news that could move the dial.

In the afternoon session, US economic indicators, Fed chatter, and the NASDAQ Composite Index will also provide direction. Fed chatter will likely have more impact on buyer appetite as investors look for further reaction to the latest US inflation numbers. The NASDAQ mini was up 30.5 points this morning.

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index fell from 51/100 to 50/100. Significantly, the Index avoided a return to the Fear zone. Crypto market headwinds likely weighed on investor sentiment, with Fed monetary policy and regulatory risk in focus.

After falling into the Neutral zone, the Index must return to the Greed zone to support a BTC breakout from $25,000 to target $30,000. However, an Index return to the Fear zone would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.

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