GBP Price Forecast: Pound Resumes Where it Left Off, USD Pressing

The British pound has not moved much overnight in the Asian session mainly due to the follow-through from Friday’s US core PCE price index that showed elevated inflation pressures via the Fed’s preferred measure. Terminal rates for 2023 have now breached the 5.4% level (see table below) and could expose the pound to further downside against the greenback.

Today’s economic calendar contains one standout data print in US durable goods orders for January (see economic calendar below). While the headline read is expected to fall after a flurry of airplane orders in December, the ‘ex transport’ figure is projected to be marginally higher.

From a political standpoint, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to travel to the UK today to meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak regarding a new Brexit deal. This could spark renewed trading between Northern Ireland and the UK but has not translated through to GBP yet.

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