EUR/USD extends the rebound for the second session in a row and revisits 2-day highs in the 1.1050 region on Monday.
EUR/USD shifts the attention back to 1.1100
EUR/USD surpasses the 1.1000 barrier with certain conviction amidst the continuation of the selling mood in the greenback, as investors keep digesting April’s Nonfarm Payrolls published on Friday.
In the meantime, hawkish ECB-speak should keep further tightening in the next couple of meetings on the table, while speculation of a most likely pause at the Fed’s hiking cycle in June is seen keeping the Buck under pressure for the time being.
In the euro docket, Industrial Production in Germany contracted at a monthly 3.4% in March, while Wholesale Inventories are only due across the ocean.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD’s recovery picks up the extra pace and seems to have shifted its attention to the 1.1100 region.
The movement of the euro’s value is expected to mirror the behaviour of the US Dollar closely and will likely be impacted by any differences in approach between the Fed and the ECB regarding their plans for adjusting interest rates.
Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continues to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.
This week’s key euro events include: Germany’s Industrial Production (Monday) and Germany’s Final Inflation Rate (Wednesday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation (or not) of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, the pair is up 0.30% at 1.1050, and the surpass of 1.1095 (2023 high April 26) would target 1.1100 (round level) en route to 1.1184 (weekly high March 21 2022). In opposition, the next support is seen at 1.0941 (monthly low May 2), followed by 1.0909 (weekly low April 17) and finally 1.0831 (monthly low April 10).
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