Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Sticks To Gains Near Daily Top, Around $2,025 Region

Gold price regains positive traction on the first day of a new week and builds on Friday’s late bounce from levels just below the $2,000 psychological mark. The XAU/USD sticks to its gains through the first half of the European session and is currently at the top end of its daily trading range, around the $2,025 region.

Modest US Dollar Weakness Lends Support To Gold Price

The US Dollar (USD) edges lower for the second successive day and remains well within striking distance of the monthly low touched last week, which, in turn, is seen benefitting Gold prices. Despite the mostly upbeat release of the jobs report from the United States (US) on Friday, market participants seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The Fed Fund futures indicate a 90% probability that the US central bank will hold rates in June. Moreover, the markets have been pricing in the possibility that the Fed will cut rates in the second half of this year amid signs that the economy is slowing. This, in turn, continues to weigh on the Greenback and lends some support to the US Dollar-denominated commodity.

Sliding US Bond Yields Further Drive Flows Towards XAU/USD

Dovish Fed expectations and worries about a full-blown banking crisis and the US debt ceiling lead to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields. It is worth recalling that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a stark warning on Sunday that a failure by Congress to act on the debt ceiling could trigger a “constitutional crisis”. Yellen added that a default would call into question the federal government’s creditworthiness and sounded the alarm over possible financial market consequences if the debt ceiling is not raised by early June. This is seen as another factor weighing on the Greenback and offering additional support to the safe-haven Gold price. A generally positive tone around the equity markets might cap gains for the precious metal.

Focus Now Shifts To US Consumer Inflation Figures On Wednesday

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the latest US consumer inflation figures, due on Wednesday. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in driving market expectations about the Fed’s next policy move, which, in turn, will influence the USD demand and help determine the near-term trajectory for Gold price. In the meantime, the USD remains at the mercy of the US bond yields without any relevant market-moving economic data from the US. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment will be looked upon to grab short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD.

Gold Price Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up will likely confront some resistance near the $2,040 region ahead of the $2,050 supply zone. Some follow-through buying can potentially lift Gold’s price back towards the all-time high, around the $2,078-$2,079 region touched last Thursday. The momentum could extend further, allowing bulls to conquer the $2,100 round-figure mark.

Conversely, the daily swing low, around the $2,015 area, might now protect the immediate downside. The $2,000 psychological mark follows this. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $1,980 zone en route to the $1,970 strong horizontal support. Some follow-through selling will negate any near-term positive outlook and shift the bias toward bearish traders.